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One up on wall street pdf free download

One up on wall street pdf free download

One Up On Wall Street (PDF),Newest Books

Web27/04/ · One Up On Wall Street By Peter Lynch: Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming: Internet Archive Web2/07/ · One Up On Wall Street (PDF) July 2, Peter Lynch is considered one of the best investors in history, and in his book “One Up On Wall Street,” (download this Web3/04/ · Download One Up On Wall Street Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle More than one million copies have been sold of this seminal book on investing in which legendary WebOne up on Wall Street. by. Peter Lynch. Publication date. Topics. Investments, Stocks, Speculation. Publisher. Simon and Schuster Web8/12/ · peter lynch pdf, one up on wallstreet freedownload, one upon wallstreet pdf down load, blogger.com, peter lynch - one up on wallstreet. free pdf, peter lynch ... read more




You set aside some money, quit your job, devote yourself entirelyto studying the markets, and start to invest. Then, through hardwork and your own magical intuition, you become so wealthy yourmajor concern is finding a fashionable hobby to soak up yourabundant leisure time. All in about a year. Now, thanks to this hugely entertaining and informative book, youcan live out the fantasy without risking your money, your job--oryour sanity. Since its acclaimed debut a decade ago, A Fool and His Money hasbecome a treasured investment classic. It's the comic, firsthandaccount of a first-time investor who sets out to make his wildestmoney dreams come true. In a surge of optimism and enterprise, financial writer JohnRothchild drops everything to devote an entire year to learning howto invest a modest sum of money.


Motivated by a sincere desire toget rich, he undertakes his mission by systematically studying asmuch as he can about the markets and how they really operate. Hefearlessly asks the most basic questions, observes theprofessionals at work, studies the newsletters, makes investments,and reports back on everything--including his own highly personaland often hilarious reactions. In a gesture of pure magnanimity, Rothchild also includes thehard-won bits of wisdom he calls his "25 Useful Tips"--whichinclude such sage advice as "Never buy anything from a broker at anairport"--and his handy "Fool's Glossary," which clarifies many ofthe technical terms used in the book.


Clever, funny, and informative, A Fool and His Money will rewardinvestors at all levels of experience with a revelation on everypage. on the behavior of common stocks in the United States. The third edition of this BusinessWeek and New York Times bestseller contains more than 50 percent new material and is designed to help you reshape your investment strategies for both the postbubble market and the dramatically changed political landscape. Packed with all-new charts, data, tables, and analyses, this updated classic allows you to directly compare popular stockpicking strategies and their results--creating a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate and often confusing investment process.


Skip to content. One Up On Wall Street Download One Up On Wall Street full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. One Up On Wall Street. Download One Up On Wall Street Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle. Beating the Street. Download Beating the Street Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle. Learn to Earn. Download Learn to Earn Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle. A Random Walk Down Wall Street The Time Tested Strategy for Successful Investing Ninth Edition. Lynch has very generously shared tons of his experiences and investment philosophy, in simplest of language, while managing the money at Fidelity from to famous Magellan fund , with all of us. Some of the important messages are: When one buys sells in desperation, one always buys expensive sells cheap. It also means, when one buys from sells to desperate, one would always buy cheap sell expensive.


Financial experts are different from experts in Engineering and or Medical fields. By putting stocks into categories, one would have better idea of what to expect from them. Always write the thesis for buying a business Just a para covering rational behind decision. Hold as long as thesis is in play, irrespective of highs or lows of the market. Big companies have small moves and small companies have big moves. Hottest stocks in the hottest industries are better avoided. Probably, they are too expensive deals. Book value in Balance Sheet could be quite deceptive — Debt is real number and assets may be worth less than the amount they appear for in balance sheet. It takes years, not months, to produce big results. Distrust diversifications, which usually turn out to be diworseification.


New bottoms may surprise you! Absolutely frivolous. Question to ask is whether it is a good business at the current price to buy? If yes, hold. Otherwise, just sell and free up capital. That is the reason, I always say that hold is a frivolous recommendation. Between these strenuous three-month checkups, Flint calls Doggle twice a day for an update. He wastes so many hours talking to Flint about picking good stocks that he has no time left to do his job. Fund managers in general spend a quarter of their working hours explaining what they just did—first to their immediate bosses in their own trust department, and then to their ultimate bosses, the clients like Flint at White Bread. Fortunately for Doggle there is no date attached to these purchases, so Flint never realizes that Xerox and Sears have been in the portfolio since , when bell-bottom pants were the national rage.


Then Flint moves along to Seven Oaks International, which happens to be one of my all-time favorite picks. Ever wonder what happens to all those discount coupons—fifteen cents off Heinz ketchup, twenty-five cents off Windex, etc. Your supermarket wraps them up and sends them off to the Seven Oaks plant in Mexico, where piles of coupons are collated, processed, and cleared for payment, much as a check is cleared through the Federal Reserve banks. Seven Oaks makes a lot of money doing this boring job, and the shareholders are well-rewarded. After two or three similar episodes, he vows never to buy another off-beat company and to stick to the Xeroxes and the Searses.


He also decides to sell Seven Oaks at the earliest opportunity so that the memory of it will be expunged forever from his list. A successor always wants to start off with a positive feeling, which means keep the Xerox and wipe out the Seven Oaks. The portfolio departments of many regional banks outside of New York City have done an outstanding job picking stocks for an extended period of time. Many corporations, especially the medium-sized ones, have distinguished themselves in managing their pension money. The secondary result is that the bigger funds are forced to limit themselves to the top 90 to companies, out of the 10, or so that are publicly traded. That cuts out a lot of opportunities, especially in the small fast-growing enterprises that tend to be the tenbaggers. Size is measured by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current stock price. This results in a strange phenomenon: large funds are allowed to buy shares in small companies only when the shares are no bargain.


By definition, then, the pension portfolios are wedded to the ten-percent gainers, the plodders, and the regular Fortune bigshots that offer few pleasant surprises. No wonder so many pension-fund managers fail to beat the market averages. Equity mutual funds such as mine are less restricted. Flint hovering over my shoulder. My biggest disadvantage is size. The bigger the equity fund, the harder it gets for it to outperform the competition. Big funds have the same built-in handicaps as big anythings—the bigger it is, the more energy it takes to move it.


The stocks I try to buy are the very stocks that traditional fund managers try to overlook. In other words, I continue to think like an amateur as frequently as possible. Nor do you have to force yourself to think like an amateur if you already are one. In the unlikely event that your mate is dismayed at your stock selections, you could always hide the monthly statements that arrive in the mail. If no company seems attractive on the fundamentals, you can avoid stocks altogether and wait for a better opportunity. Equity fund managers do not have that luxury, either. Most important, you can find terrific opportunities in the neighborhood or at the workplace, months or even years before the news has reached the analysts and the fund managers they advise. This issue of stocks versus bonds is worth resolving right up front, and in a calm and dignified manner, or else it will come up again at the most frantic moments, when the stock market is dropping and people rush to the banks to sign up for CDs.


Lately, just such a rush has occurred. Investing in bonds, money-markets, or CDs are all different forms of investing in debt—for which one is paid interest. For years the Indians have been the subjects of cruel jokes because of it—but it turns out they may have made a better deal than the buyers who got the island. Bonds have been especially attractive in the last twenty years. Not in the fifty years before that, but definitely in the last twenty. People who bought U. Bondholders have no more choice in the matter than property owners who face a condemnation. On the other hand, if interest rates go in a direction that works against the bondholders, the bondholders are stuck with the bonds. savings bonds. Then the bond funds were invented, and regular people could invest in debt right along with tycoons. After that, the money-market fund liberated millions of former passbook savers from the captivity of banks, once and for all.


There ought to be a monument to Bruce Bent and Harry Browne, who dreamed up the money-market account and dared to lead the great exodus out of the Scroogian thrifts. They started it with the Reserve Fund in My own boss, Ned Johnson, took the idea a thought further and added the check-writing feature. Prior to that, the money-market was most useful as a place where small corporations could park their weekly payroll funds. The check- writing feature gave the money-market fund universal appeal as a savings account and a checking account. If your money has stayed in a money-market fund since , you certainly have no reason to feel embarrassed about it. The year that short-term interest rates rose to 17 percent and the stock market dropped 5 percent, you made a 22 percent relative gain by staying in cash.


But the morning after the crash, with the Dow beaten back to , you felt vindicated. You avoided the whole trauma of October With stock prices so drastically reduced, the money-market actually had outperformed the stock market over the entire year—6. THE STOCKS REBUT But two months later the stock market had rebounded, and once again stocks were outperforming both money-market funds and long-term bonds. Over the long haul they always do. Historically, investing in stocks is undeniably more profitable than investing in debt. In fact, since , common stocks have recorded gains of 9.


The long-term inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is 3 percent a year, which gives common stocks a real return of 6. The real return on Treasury bills, known as the most conservative and sensible of all places to put money, has been nil. The advantage of a 9. When you lend money to somebody, the best you can hope for is to get it back, plus interest. Sure, the original bondholders have gotten their money back, the same as they would have with a bank CD, but the original stockholders have gotten rich. They own the company. WHAT ABOUT THE RISKS? Even blue-chip stocks held long term, supposedly the safest of all propositions, can be risky. Less than one percent worth of annual appreciation is all you got in 57 years of sticking with a solid, world-famous, and successful company. Glance at a list of the original Dow Jones industrials from Leather Preferred?


These once-famous stocks must have vanished long ago. Then from the list we see Baldwin Locomotive, gone by ; the list includes such household names as Paramount Famous Lasky and Remington Typewriter; in , Remington Typewriter disappears and United Drug takes its place. In , when the Dow Jones was expanded from 20 to 30 companies, the new arrivals included Nash Motors, Postum, Wright Aeronautical, and Victor Talking Machine. The latter two companies were removed by — Victor Talking Machine because it had merged into RCA. In , we find Corn Products Refining on the list, but by it, too, is taken off and replaced by Swift and Co.


During certain periods it seems to take forever for the theoretical 9. The Dow Jones industrials reached an all-time high of But with the possible exception of the very short-term bonds and bond funds, bonds can be risky, too. If you are truly risk-averse, then the money-market fund or the bank is the place for you. Otherwise, there are risks wherever you turn. Yes, I know bonds pay off in Try holding on to a year bond with a 6 percent coupon during a period of raging inflation, and see what happens to the value of the bond. A lot of people have invested in funds that buy Government National Mortgage Association bonds Ginnie Maes without realizing how volatile the bond market has become. These days, bond funds fluctuate just as wildly as stock funds. The same volatility in interest rates that enables clever investors to make big profits from bonds also makes holding bonds more of a gamble.


STOCKS AND STUD POKER Frankly, there is no way to separate investing from gambling into those neat categories that are meant to reassure us. Historically, stocks are embraced as investments or dismissed as gambles in routine and circular fashion, and usually at the wrong times. Once the unsettling fact of the risk in money is accepted, we can begin to separate gambling from investing not by the type of activity buying bonds, buying stocks, betting on the horses, etc. but by the skill, dedication, and enterprise of the participant. To a veteran handicapper with the discipline to stick to a system, betting on horses offers a relatively secure long-term return, which to him has been as reliable as owning a mutual fund, or shares in General Electric. In fact, to the rash and impetuous stock player, my advice is: Forget Wall Street and take your mad money to Hialeah, Monte Carlo, Saratoga, Nassau, Santa Anita, or Baden-Baden. It may take days of extra work to figure all this out.


In fact, the stock market most reminds me of a stud poker game. Betting on seven-card stud can provide a very consistent long-term return to people who know how to manage their cards. By asking some basic questions about companies, you can learn which are likely to grow and prosper, which are unlikely to grow and prosper, and which are entirely mysterious. You can never be certain what will happen, but each new occurrence—a jump in earnings, the sale of an unprofitable subsidiary, the expansion into new markets—is like turning up another card. As long as the cards suggest favorable odds of success, you stay in the hand. These are the players who undertake to maximize their return on investment by carefully calculating and recalculating their chances as the hand unfolds. Consistent winners raise their bet as their position strengthens, and they exit the game when the odds are against them, while consistent losers hang on to the bitter end of every expensive pot, hoping for miracles and enjoying the thrill of defeat.


In stud poker and on Wall Street, miracles happen just often enough to keep the losers losing. They accept their fate and go on to the next hand, confident that their basic method will reward them over time. People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game. They realize the stock market is not pure science, and not like chess, where the superior position always wins. Six out of ten is all it takes to produce an enviable record on Wall Street. Over time, the risks in the stock market can be reduced by proper play just as the risks in stud poker are reduced. It happens to people who imagine that betting with blue chips relieves them of the need to pay attention, so they lose half their money in quick fashion and may not recoup it for another eight years. In the early s millions of uninformed dollars chased overpriced opportunities and soon disappeared as a result.


It was safe all right—the stock did nothing for more than a decade. It went up sixfold. The big winners come from the so-called high-risk categories, but the risks have more to do with the investors than with the categories. The greatest advantage to investing in stocks, to one who accepts the uncertainties, is the extraordinary reward for being right. This is borne out in the mutual fund returns calculated by the Johnson Chart Service of Buffalo, New York. Clearly the stock market has been a gamble worth taking—as long as you know how to play the game. And as long as you own stocks, new cards keep turning up. Before you buy a share of anything, there are three personal issues that ought to be addressed: 1 Do I own a house? and 3 Do I have the personal qualities that will bring me success in stocks? Millions of real estate amateurs have invested brilliantly in their houses. The banks let you acquire it for 20 percent down and in some cases less, giving you the remarkable power of leverage.


This is another great advantage to owning a house. As a bonus you get a federal tax deduction on the local real estate tax on the house, plus the house is a perfect hedge against inflation and a great place to hide out during a recession, not to mention the roof over your head. Then at the end, if you decide to cash in your house, you can roll the proceeds into a fancier house to avoid paying taxes on your profit. After the children have moved away, then you sell the big house and revert to a smaller house, making a sizable profit in the transition. That never happens in stocks, which are taxed as frequently and as heavily as possible. You can have a forty-year run in houses without paying taxes, culminating in the sweetheart exclusion.


Neighbors saw nothing unusual to account for this unexpected decline. Compare this to the 87 percent of all the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange that change hands every year. People get much more comfortable in their houses than they do in their stocks. It takes a moving van to get out of a house, and only a phone call to get out of a stock. The skill of poking around houses is handed down. You grow up watching how your parents checked into the public services, the schools, the drainage, the septic perk test, and the taxes. Then, before you make an offer on a house, you hire experts to search for termites, roof leaks, dry rot, rusty pipes, faulty wiring, and cracks in the foundation. No wonder people make money in the real estate market and lose money in the stock market. They spend months choosing their houses, and minutes choosing their stocks. In fact, they spend more time shopping for a good microwave oven than shopping for a good investment.


This brings us to question two. It makes sense to review the family budget before you buy stocks. In this instance, even buying blue-chip stocks would be too risky to consider. Absent a lot of surprises, stocks are relatively predictable over ten to twenty years. Either way, you should stay out of the stock market. Only invest what you could afford to lose without that loss having any effect on your daily life in the foreseeable future. This is the most important question of all. It seems to me the list of qualities ought to include patience, self-reliance, common sense, a tolerance for pain, open-mindedness, detachment, persistence, humility, flexibility, a willingness to do independent research, an equal willingness to admit to mistakes, and the ability to ignore general panic.


In terms of IQ, probably the best investors fall somewhere above the bottom ten percent but also below the top three percent. The true geniuses, it seems to me, get too enamored of theoretical cogitations and are forever betrayed by the actual behavior of stocks, which is more simple- minded than they can imagine. The scientific mind that needs to know all the data will be thwarted here. This is borne out by the popular investment-advisory newsletter services, which themselves tend to turn bullish and bearish at inopportune moments. At the beginning of the stock market rebound in , investor sentiment was at an all-time low, with 65 percent of the advisors fearing the worst was yet to come.


Before the market turned downward in , once again the newsletter writers were optimistic, with only 10 percent bears. At the start of the sendoff into a great bull market, 55 percent of the advisors were bears, and just prior to the big gulp of October 19, , 80 percent of the advisors were bulls again. When enough positive general financial news filters down so that the majority of investors feel truly confident in the short-term prospects, the economy is soon to get hammered. What else explains the fact that large numbers of investors including CEOs and sophisticated business people have been most afraid of stocks during the precise periods when stocks have done their best i.


What a glorious boom. How are they ever going to sell all those condos and rent all that office space? The unwary investor continually passes in and out of three emotional states: concern, complacency, and capitulation. Then after he buys at higher prices, he gets complacent because his stocks are going up. Then finally, when his stocks fall on hard times and the prices fall to below what he paid, he capitulates and sells in a snit. We finished the year with a 1 percent gain, thus barely preserving my record of never having had a down year—knock on wood. Recently I read that the price of an average stock fluctuates 50 percent in an average year. The true contrarian is not the investor who takes the opposite side of a popular hot issue i. The true contrarian waits for things to cool down and buys stocks that nobody cares about, and especially those that make Wall Street yawn.


When E. Everybody ought to be trying to fall asleep. The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. If not, your only hope for increasing your net worth may be to adopt J. For every person who wonders if Goodyear Tire is a solid company, or well-priced at current levels, four other people want to know if the bull is alive and kicking, or if the bear has shown its grizzly face. I always tell them the only thing I know about predicting markets is that every time I get promoted, the market goes down.


In fact, if ignorance loves company, then I was very comfortably surrounded by a large and impressive mob of famous seers, prognosticators, and other experts who failed to see it, too. All the major advances and declines have been surprises to me. Since the stock market is in some way related to the general economy, one way that people try to outguess the market is to predict inflation and recessions, booms and busts, and the direction of interest rates. True, there is a wonderful correlation between interest rates and the stock market, but who can foretell interest rates with any bankable regularity? There are 60, economists in the U. But as far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something. Well, maybe not all economists. Certainly not the ones who are reading this book, and especially not the ones like Ed Hyman at C.


Lawrence who looks at scrap prices, inventories, and railroad car deliveries, totally ignoring Laffer curves and phases of the moon. Practical economists are economists after my own heart. But the odds of my figuring it out are nil. Some people wait for these bells to go off, to signal the end of a recession or the beginning of an exciting new bull market. The trouble is the bells never go off. There was a month recession between July, , and November, Actually this was the scariest time in my memory. This was a period when we had 14 percent unemployment, 15 percent inflation, and a percent prime rate, but I never got a phone call saying any of that was going to happen, either. The day after the market crashed on October 19, people began to worry that the market was going to crash. This all reminds me of the Mayan conception of the universe. In Mayan mythology the universe was destroyed four times, and every time the Mayans learned a sad lesson and vowed to be better protected—but it was always for the previous menace.


First there was a flood, and the survivors remembered it and moved to higher ground into the woods, built dikes and retaining walls, and put their houses in the trees. Their efforts went for naught because the next time around the world was destroyed by fire. After that, the survivors of the fire came down out of the trees and ran as far away from woods as possible. They built new houses out of stone, particularly along a craggy fissure. Soon enough, the world was destroyed by an earthquake. They were too busy building shelters for the next earthquake. Once they were scared that the money supply was growing too fast. Someday there will be another recession, which will be very bad for the stock market, as opposed to the inflation that is also very bad for the stock market. Maybe there will already have been a recession between now and the time this is published.


Soon they are talking to a nearby dentist about plaque. The cocktail party talk is still more about plaque than about stocks. In stage three, with the market up 30 percent from stage one, a crowd of interested parties ignores the dentist and circles around me all evening. A succession of enthusiastic individuals takes me aside to ask what stocks they should buy. Even the dentist is asking me what stocks he should buy. WHAT STOCK MARKET? The market ought to be irrelevant. It is there only as a reference to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. That makes Buffett a wonderful investor. What makes him the greatest investor of all time is that during a certain period when he thought stocks were grossly overpriced, he sold everything and returned all the money to his partners at a sizable profit to them.


The voluntary returning of money that others would gladly pay you to continue to manage is, in my experience, unique in the history of finance. Several of my favorite tenbaggers made their biggest moves during bad markets. Taco Bell soared through the last two recessions. You still have to pick the right stocks, just the same as if you had no foresight. If you knew there was going to be a Florida real estate boom and you picked Radice out of a hat, you would have lost 95 percent of your investment. I owned both, so why did I sell my Nucor and hold on to my LTV? I might as well have thrown darts, too. If you rely on the market to drag your stock along, then you might as well take the bus to Atlantic City and bet on red or black. If you want to worry about something, worry about whether the sheet business is getting better at West Point-Pepperell, or whether Taco Bell is doing well with its new burrito supreme. Pick the right stocks and the market will take care of itself. The only buy signal I need is to find a company I like.


The average person comes across a likely prospect two or three times a year— sometimes more. Or maybe the Pep Boys building contractors noticed that cement prices had firmed, which is good news for the companies that supply cement. All along the retail and wholesale chains, people who make things, sell things, clean things, or analyze things encounter numerous stockpicking opportunities. In my own business—the mutual-fund industry—the salesmen, clerks, secretaries, analysts, accountants, telephone operators, and computer installers, all could scarcely have overlooked the great boom of the early s that sent mutual-fund stocks soaring. You could be a film salesman, the owner of a camera store, or a clerk in a camera store. You could also be the local wedding photographer who notices that five or six relatives are taking unofficial pictures at weddings and making it harder for you to get good shots.


How about Automatic Data Processing, which processes nine million paychecks a week for , small and medium-sized companies? This has been one of the all-time great opportunities: The company went public in and has increased earnings every year without a lapse. The worst it ever did was to earn 11 percent more than the previous year, and that was during the — 83 recession when many companies reported losses. It uses computers to process paychecks, and users of technology are the biggest beneficiaries of high-tech. As competition drives down the price of computers, a firm such as Automatic Data can buy the cheaper equipment, so its costs are continually reduced.


This only adds to profits. The company has twice as much cash as debt and shows no sign of slowing down. So often we struggle to pick a winning stock, when all the while a winning stock has been struggling to pick us. Well, maybe one day you have to go to a doctor. The rural existence has given you ulcers, which is the perfect introduction to SmithKline Beckman. Hundreds of doctors, thousands of patients, and millions of friends and relatives of patients heard about the wonder drug Tagamet, which came on the market in So did the pharmacist who dispensed the pills and the delivery boy who spent half his workday delivering them. Tagamet was a boon for the afflicted, and a bonanza for investors. Tagamet was one of the latter. It provided fantastic relief from the suffering from ulcers, and the direct beneficiaries had to keep taking it again and again, making indirect beneficiaries out of the shareholders of Smith-Kline Beckman, the makers of Tagamet.


These users and prescribers had a big lead on the Wall Street talent. No doubt some of the oxymorons suffered from ulcers themselves—this is an anxious business—but SmithKline must not have been included on their buy lists, because it was a year before the stock began its ascent. Zantac went through testing in the early eighties and got its U. approval in Zantac was just as well-received as Tagamet, and just as profitable to Glaxo. Did the doctors who prescribed Tagamet and Zantac buy shares in SmithKline and Glaxo? Somehow I doubt that many did. Perhaps they heard that Union Oil of California was a takeover candidate.


Perhaps a winning investment seems so unlikely in the first place that people can best imagine it happening as far away as possible, somewhere off in the Great Beyond, just as we all imagine that perfect behavior takes place in heaven and not on earth. True, true. But the important point is that 1 the oil experts, on average, are in a better position than doctors to decide when to buy or to sell Schlumberger; and 2 the doctors, on average, know better than oil experts when to invest in a successful drug. The person with the edge is always in a position to outguess the person without an edge—who after all will be the last to learn of important changes in a given industry. Though people who buy stocks about which they are ignorant may get lucky and enjoy great rewards, it seems to me they are competing under unnecessary handicaps, just like the marathon runner who decides to stake his reputation on a bobsled race.


Both are useful in picking stocks, but in different ways. All this means higher profits for existing companies that make the product. You call up your broker and ask for the latest background information on the tire company, instead of waiting for the broker to call to tell you about Wang Laboratories. All along the supply lines of the manufacturing industry, people who make things and sell things encounter numerous stockpicking opportunities. It might be a service industry, the property-casualty insurance business, or even the book business where you can spot a turnaround. Buyers and sellers of any product notice shortages and gluts, price changes and shifts in demand.


Wall Street is obsessed with cars. But in most other endeavors the grassroots observer can spot a turnaround six to twelve months ahead of the regular financial analysts. If you work in real estate, maybe you know that a department store chain owns four city blocks in downtown Atlanta, carried on the books at pre— Civil War prices. This is a definite hidden asset, and similar opportunities might be found in gold, oil, timberland, and TV stations. In such delightful instances you can truly buy a great deal of something for nothing.


Executives knew this, programmers could have known it, cameramen could have known it, and even the people who come around to hook up the cable to the house could have known it. I could go on for the rest of the book about the edge that being in a business gives the average stockpicker. MY WONDERFUL EDGE Who could have had a greater advantage than yours truly, sitting in an office at Fidelity during the boom in financial services and in the mutual funds? This was my chance to make up for missing Pebble Beach. Perhaps I can be forgiven for that incredible asset play. Golf and sailing are my summer hobbies, but mutual funds are my regular business.


I know half the officers in the major financial-service companies, I follow the daily ups and downs, and I could notice important trends months before the analysts on Wall Street. The people who print prospectuses must have seen it—they could hardly keep up with all the new shareholders in the mutual funds. The sales force must have seen it as they crisscrossed the country in their Winnebagos and returned with billions in new assets. The maintenance services must have seen the expansion in the offices at Federated, Franklin, Dreyfus, and Fidelity. The companies that sold mutual funds prospered as never before in their history. The mad rush was on. But what about Dreyfus? Franklin was a bagger, and Federated was up fiftyfold before it was bought out by Aetna. I was right on top of all of them. I knew the Dreyfus story, the Franklin story, and the Federated story from beginning to end.


Everything was right, earnings were up, the momentum was obvious see chart. How much did I make from all this? I guess I was too busy thinking about Union Oil of California, just like the doctors. The market break gave me another chance with Dreyfus see Chapter With a few of them I got a small part of the gain, and with others I managed to lose money through bad timing and fuzzy thinking. This being an incomplete account, you can imagine how many opportunities must be out there. Not yet. In fact, you ought to treat the initial information whatever brought this company to your attention as if it were an anonymous and intriguing tip, mysteriously shoved into your mailbox. It seems to me that this homework phase is just as important to your success in stocks as your previous vow to ignore the short-term gyrations of the market. Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards. For some reason the whole business of analyzing stocks has been made to seem so esoteric and technical that normally careful consumers invest their life savings on a whim.


The same couple that spends the weekend searching for the best deal on airfares to London buys shares of KLM without having spent five minutes learning about the company. They fancy themselves to be smart consumers, even going so far as to read the labels on pillowcases. They compare the weights and prices on the boxes of laundry soap to find the best buy. Of course not. All you have to do is put as much effort into picking your stocks as you do into buying your groceries. In developing the story you have to make certain initial distinctions. The other was Pampers. Any friend or relative of a baby could have realized how popular Pampers were, and right on the box it says that Pampers are made by Procter and Gamble. But on the strength of Pampers alone, should you have rushed out to buy the stock?


Then, in about five minutes, you would have noticed that Procter and Gamble is a huge company and that Pampers sales contribute only a small part of the earnings. So what happens? In another case, which happened about the same time, investors did better homework. A somewhat better aspirin play was Sterling Drug, maker of Bayer aspirin, before it was bought out by Eastman Kodak. BIG COMPANIES, SMALL MOVES The size of a company has a great deal to do with what you can expect to get out of the stock. Sometimes a series of misfortunes will drive a big company into desperate straits, and, as it recovers, the stock will make a big move.


Chrysler had a big move, as did Ford and Bethlehem Steel. But these are extraordinary situations that fall into the category of turnarounds. In the normal course of business, multibillion-dollar enterprises such as Chrysler or Burlington Northern, DuPont or Dow Chemical, Procter and Gamble or Coca- Cola, simply cannot grow fast enough to become tenbaggers. For a General Electric to double or triple in size in the foreseeable future is mathematically impossible. GE already has gotten so big that it represents nearly one percent of the entire U. gross national product. Every time you spend a dollar, GE gets almost a penny of it. Think of that. In all the trillions spent annually by American consumers, nearly a penny of every dollar goes to goods or services light bulbs, appliances, insurance, the National Broadcasting Corporation [NBC], etc.


provided by GE. Here is a company that has done everything right—made sensible acquisitions; cut costs; developed successful new products; rid itself of bumbling subsidiaries; avoided getting suckered into the computer business after selling its mistake to Honeywell —and still the stock inches along. There is simply no way that GE could accelerate its growth very much without taking over the world. Now that Waste Management is a multibillion- dollar conglomerate, it will probably lag behind the speedy new entries in the waste-removal field. In the recent comeback of the steel industry, shareholders in the smaller Nucor have fared better than shareholders in U. Steel now USX. In the earlier comeback of the drug industry, the smaller SmithKline Beckman outperformed the larger American Home Products.


Countries have a growth rate the GNP , industries have a growth rate, and so does an individual company. Keeping track of the growth rates of industry is an industry in itself. There are endless charts, tables, and comparisons. There are more sales, more production, and more profits in each successive year. The growth of an individual company is measured against the growth of the economy at large. Fast-growing companies grow very fast, sometimes as much as 20 to 30 percent a year or more. Three of my six categories have to do with growth stocks. I separate the growth stocks into slow growers sluggards , medium growers stalwarts , and then the fast growers—the superstocks that deserve the most attention.


THE SLOW GROWERS Usually these large and aging companies are expected to grow slightly faster than the gross national product. They started out as fast growers and eventually pooped out, either because they had gone as far as they could, or else they got too tired to make the most of their chances. When an industry at large slows down as they always seem to do , most of the companies within the industry lose momentum as well. They were successful companies and great stocks. In the s, as the cost of power rose sharply, consumers learned to conserve electricity, and the utilities lost their momentum.



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This book was written to offer encouragement and basic information to the individual investor. News alerts on your favorite companies are delivered automatically to your e-mail address. Part I PREPARING TO INVEST Before you think about buying stocks, you ought to have made some basic decisions about the market, about how much you trust corporate America, about whether you need to invest in stocks and what you expect to get out of them, about whether you are a short-or long-term investor, and about how you will react to sudden, unexpected, and severe drops in price. I could go on for the rest of the book about the edge that being in a business gives the average stockpicker. Hundreds of doctors, thousands of patients, and millions of friends and relatives of patients heard about the wonder drug Tagamet, which came on the market in



Nor do you have to force yourself to think like an amateur if you already are one. Better World Books. While the parent has been an uninspiring performer, the average gain from stock in the seven newly created companies was percent from November,to October, It may take days of extra work to figure all this out. Enough about me.

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